白俄罗斯即将于8月9日迎来总统大选,由白俄罗斯反对派组织的反对卢卡申科的示威游行不断进行。总统亚历山大·卢卡申科(Alexander Lukashenko)面临着来自各方的威胁,因为该国决定他的第六个任期。
上周在白俄罗斯带来了惊人的场面,一个反对派集会被誉为苏联解体以来最大的一次集会。卢卡申科承认逮捕了33名俄罗斯雇佣兵,他们被用来破坏该国的稳定。卢卡申科28日曾表示自己无症状感染新冠病毒。
据称,执政25年的总统很可能会在8月9日的选举中获胜,并继续担任国家领导人。但是他处于防御状态,在与俄罗斯就经济一体化,与西方就人权问题的激烈争吵中,面临着激烈的反对。这是他职业生涯中最不稳定的时刻。身陷困境的白俄罗斯领导人本周作出了回应,访问了军事基地和防暴部队,并告诉他们“绝对不允许”街头抗议活动。国家电视台播放了水炮和与示威者举行模拟冲突的部队的镜头。给反对派的信息很明确:三思而后行地挑战选举结果。但是,通常的恐吓战术并没有起到什么作用,以抑制反对派集会的投票率,反对派集会吸引了成千上万的群众,即使在通常为现任总统提供强大投票率的小城镇中也是如此。“这全是吓白俄罗斯人,以便他们不要抗议。但这是行不通的,” Feduta说。“他尝试吓他们的次数越多,反作用越大。现在,他试图说服所有人。但是如果开枪,那是他的政治死亡。”下周挑战结果的抗议活动是不可避免的。统一的反对派候选人斯维特拉娜·蒂卡哈诺夫斯卡娅(Svetlana Tikhanovskaya)告诉记者,她不会要求示威,但如果爆发示威,他们将加入游行。她同意为受到当局监禁丈夫谢尔盖·蒂卡诺夫斯基(Sergei Tikhanovsky)充当替身。她的竞选平台很简单:释放政治犯,并安排新一轮的自由公正选举。另一被捕入狱的反对党候选人维克多·巴巴里科(Viktor Babariko)在被捕前接受采访时,他说:“我们看到了一个被欺骗的人如何对待齐奥塞斯库”他指的是罗马尼亚独裁者在1989年最后几天的迅速消亡。反对派集会正达到前所未有的数量。
本周紧张局势急剧升级,白俄罗斯指责在明斯克附近被拘留的33名俄罗斯雇佣军准备在大选前进行恐怖袭击以破坏该国的稳定。莫斯科要求遣返人员并加强两国之间的边境检查。分析人士说,卢卡申科很可能在大选后释放这些人,但目前仍想让他们向公众强调莫斯科干预的危险。费达塔说:“卢卡申科必须表明,如果有人抗议他的选举,那将受到俄罗斯的启发。”
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