复旦大学附属华山医院感染科主任张文宏医生9月20日,在上海交通大学出席活动时表示,随着英法等欧洲国家相继出现第二波疫情,很多中国老百姓一直问今年冬天有没有第二波疫情,对此他表示,第二波是必然的。今天英国首相也说了,英国已经出现了第二波,法国已经第二波半个月了,西班牙第二波也已经半个多月了。
张文宏提出,从全球范围看,为何新冠病毒疫情控制不住,而且在国家和地区之间造成不平衡,归根到底,和这次新冠病毒的特性有着极大关系。新冠病毒传播力非常强,但致死率并不高。不像埃博拉,不像SARS,甚至不像H1N9禽流感。在张文宏看来,正是这一非常独特的现象导致病毒在全世界持续蔓延。
他特别提及,新冠病毒基本上对老年人发动攻击,而在整个社会医疗系统瘫痪时才对年轻人发动攻击。因此,在这种特殊情况下,美国等国的年轻人在外无所谓,实施大隔离也做不到,但没有这么致命的新冠恰恰形成了全球疫情的致命性,毒力不是太强的病毒却反而变成了整个人类的强敌。如果不搞定,这个小火苗烧起来,就成为指数曲线。 他透露,中国仍然面临输入风险,这两天国家组团分赴各个省份督察感染病防治体系,不能让输入性疫情成为小火苗再度爆发。张文宏估测,因为疫苗做好,建成供应链铺货,需要时间,这个时间点一年之内达不到,而且,美国研发的疫苗需要冷链,活性要求非常高,中国研发的灭活疫苗还好,但都需要一定时间做到。因此,对于这个世界的预期,做一年的打算应该是最低的限定。
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